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Renewable Carbon

Publications

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nova provides studies on
all renewable carbon relevant
topics such as

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bio-based & CO₂-based polymers
as well as chemical recycling

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Data for 2024:

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Report on Bio-based
Building Blocks and
Polymers

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Advanced Recycling Figure

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Report on
Advanced Plastic
Waste Recycling
Technologies

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Report on
The PHA Industry
Landscape

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Renewable Carbon Publications
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Supply and Demand of Agricultural Biomass Worldwide 2050 in HT +10 Scenario – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
31 Downloads

31 Downloads

2025-02

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Is there Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050? – A Joint BIC and RCI Scientific Background Report (PDF)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

41 Pages
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1402 Downloads

2025-02

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This reports presents the findings of a joint project of the Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC) and the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI), which focuses on whether agricultural and woody biomass combined sustainably provide enough biomass to meet 20% of the future carbon demand of the chemical and derived materials industries in 2050 (up from 5.5% (EU27) and 10% (global) in 2023).

This leading question was investigated with professional experts to model a business-as-usual, a low resource depletion, and a high-tech scenario to better analyse the possible ranges of biomass availability under different developments.

Agriculture: By 2050, under the BAU scenario, production is projected to increase by 31% to 5.07 billion tonnes. Cereals increase by 32% to 3.1 billion tonnes, sugar by 40% to 340 million tonnes and vegetable oils by 45% to 317 million tonnes. In the Green LRD scenarios, production is projected to increase by 24–26%, and in the Green HT scenarios by 38–53% – compared to 31% in the BAU scenario.

Forestry: Global supply and demand of industrial roundwood (coniferous and non-coniferous) will increase by an estimated 38% between 2020 and 2050, from 0.9 to 1.3 billion tdm. The largest increase in supply is expected in Asia (69%), including China and Russia, but a significant increase of 32% is also seen for Europe.

The report concludes that sustainably meeting 20% of total carbon demand of the chemicals and derived materials sector in 2050 via biomass seems a realistic and achievable estimate.

DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/PIRL6916
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European Non-fossil C-fuel Demand in the Transport Sector – Strong Ammonia – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
8 Downloads

8 Downloads

2025-01

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European Non-fossil C-fuel Demand in the Transport Sector – Strong CCU – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
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16 Downloads

2025-01

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Global Biomass Demand in Mt for Biofuel Production – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
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22 Downloads

2025-01

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Global Non-fossil C-fuel Demand in the Transport Sector – Basic – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
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22 Downloads

2025-01

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Global Non-fossil C-fuel Demand in the Transport Sector – Strong Ammonia – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
15 Downloads

15 Downloads

2025-01

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Global Non-fossil C-fuel Demand in the Transport Sector – Strong CCU – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
280 Downloads

280 Downloads

2025-01

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EU and Global: Biomass Demand for Transport Fuels, Aviation and Shipping up to 2050 and Implications for Biomass Supply to the Chemical Sector (PDF)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

44 Pages
1064 Downloads

1064 Downloads

2025-01

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The Renewable Carbon Initiative’s Scientific Background Report explores three potential future scenarios for carbon-based fuel demand up to 2050 under current policy frameworks. It predicts a sharp rise in the demand for second-generation biomass biofuels, driven primarily by increasing quotas for aviation and shipping fuels. This growth raises concerns about ecological and resource sustainability and creates challenges for sectors like chemicals and materials, which rely on renewable carbon to reduce fossil dependency. Without similar regulatory incentives, these sectors may face limited access to critical feedstocks like biomass and captured carbon.

The report highlights that while bio-based and synthetic fuel production could indirectly benefit the chemical industry through by-products, competition with the fuel sector poses significant obstacles.The report includes 11 tables, 9 graphics, and a detailed overview of EU fuel regulations. Though focused on Europe, it also provides global insights, making it a valuable resource for stakeholders in biomass and CO₂ utilisation sectors.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52548/GXVG4189
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European Biomass Demand in Mt for Biofuel Production – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
30 Downloads

30 Downloads

2025-01

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Industrial Roundwood Production in Three Scenarios in Million m3 – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
7 Downloads

7 Downloads

2025-01

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European Non-fossil C-fuel Demand in the Transport Sector – Basic – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
24 Downloads

24 Downloads

2025-01

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Evaluation of Recent Reports on the Future of a Net-Zero Chemical Industry in 2050 (PDF)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

20 Pages
1529 Downloads

1529 Downloads

2024-11

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The Renewable Carbon Initiative’s Scientific Background Report assesses 24 scenarios from 15 studies to envision a net-zero chemical industry by 2050. The analysis anticipates continued growth in chemical production, projecting a 2.4-fold increase in global feedstock demand by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with most expansion expected outside Europe while European feedstock volumes remain stable. To achieve net-zero emissions, the industry is projected to undergo a significant shift in feedstocks, with key renewable carbon sources identified as biomass (22%), carbon capture and utilisation (33%), and recycling (20%), while the remaining 24% comes from fossil sources with carbon capture and storage. For plastics specifically, recycling is expected to play an even larger role, accounting for 42% of feedstocks on average. This transition will require continued innovation and investment in renewable carbon technologies to meet ambitious defossilisation goals.

The report provides invaluable insights for industry leaders, policymakers, and researchers, highlighting the urgent need for action to achieve a net-zero future in the chemical sector by 2050.

DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/SXWV6083
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Net-Zero Plastics – Evaluation of Feedstock (%) Across 10 Scenarios from 7 Reports 2050 – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
103 Downloads

103 Downloads

2024-11

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The graph illustrates feedstock projections specifically for the plastics sector by 2050, analysing 10 scenarios from 7 reports, where recycling emerges as the dominant feedstock at 42% (combining mechanical and chemical recycling), while biomass (21%), CCU (17%), and fossil with CCS (19%) play supporting roles. The data shows less variation in projections compared to the chemical industry overall, suggesting stronger agreement on the future role of recycling in plastics production.
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Net-Zero Chemical Industry – Evaluation of Feedstock (%) Across 16 Scenarios from 9 Reports 2050 – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
81 Downloads

81 Downloads

2024-11

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The graph shows the distribution of feedstock sources for the net-zero chemical industry by 2050, based on 16 scenarios from 9 reports, with CCU having the highest mean share at 33%, followed by biomass (22%), recycling (20%, split between mechanical and chemical), and fossil with CCS (24%). The data reveals significant variability across scenarios, particularly for CCU which ranges from near 0% to 90%, while both biomass and recycling show more moderate ranges, indicating a general consensus on their roles in the future chemical industry.
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Net-Zero Plastics – Mean Feedstock Shares (%) Across 10 Scenarios From 7 Reports – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
68 Downloads

68 Downloads

2024-11

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The graph presents the mean feedstock shares for the 2050 net-zero plastics sector, derived from 10 scenarios across 7 reports. In this projection, recycling dominates with a 42% share, followed by biomass (21%), fossil & CCS (19%), and CCU (17%), highlighting the increased potential for circularity in the plastics industry compared to the broader chemical sector.
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Net-Zero Chemical Industry – Mean Feedstock Shares (%) Across 16 Scenarios From 9 Reports – Graphic (PNG)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

1 Page
51 Downloads

51 Downloads

2024-11

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The graph illustrates the mean feedstock shares projected for the 2050 net-zero chemical industry, based on 16 scenarios across 9 reports. The chart shows a diverse mix of feedstocks, with CCU (33%) and recycling (20%) playing significant roles alongside biomass (22%), while fossil & CCS still account for 24% of the feedstock share.
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Alternatives Naphtha – Den Kreislauf für Kunststoffe und Reifen schließen: Pyrolyseöl als chemischer Rohstoff (Gastbeitrag Teil 3) (PDF)

Markets & Economy, Technology

1 Page
73 Downloads

73 Downloads

2024-11

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In den beiden vorangegangenen Artikeln dieser Serie wurde das Konzept des alternativen Naphthas als Ersatz für fossile Rohstoffe in Raffinerien und Steamcrackern vorgestellt. In diesem dritten Artikel konzentriert sich die Diskussion auf Pyrolyseöl, das durch chemisches Recycling von Kunststoffabfällen und Reifen gewonnen wird, und warum dies ein wichtiges „alternatives Naphtha“ für Raffinerien und Steamcracker ist.

Relevante Anteile erneuerbarer Chemikalien und Polymere sind ohne „alternatives Naphtha“ nicht möglich. Ohne eine Abkehr von fossilem Naphtha wird es keine signifikante Defossilisierung des Chemiesektors geben.

Dieser Artikel ist im Rahmen einer Serie von Gastbeiträgen im CHEManager erschienen. Es handelt sich um „Alternatives Naphtha Teil 3“ – aus CHEManager 11/2024.

Hier finden sie den Artikel auch bei CHEManager.
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Alternatives Naphtha – Herstellung und Nutzung – Wie erneuerbare Rohstoffe zu Naphtha verarbeitet werden (Gastbeitrag Teil 2) (PDF)

Markets & Economy, Technology

1 Page
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33 Downloads

2024-10

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Im ersten Artikel dieser dreiteiligen Serie wurde das Konzept „Alternatives Naphtha“ als Ersatz für fossile Rohstoffe in Raffinerien und Steamcrackern vorgestellt. Relevante Mengen erneuerbarer Chemikalien und Polymere sind ohne alternatives Naphtha nicht realisierbar, eine signifikante Defossilisierung des Chemiesektors erfordert den Verzicht auf fossiles Naphtha. Im zweiten Artikel wird die Herstellung und Nutzung von alternativem Naphtha genauer beleuchtet.

Biobasierte Rohstoffe wie Fette, Öle und Schmierstoffe (Triglyceride) können fossile Erdölrohstoffe ersetzen und in bestehenden Raffinerien mitverarbeitet werden. Dies ist attraktiv, da Raffinerien ohne große Investitionen Biokraftstoffe und biobasierte Grundchemikalien produzieren können. Eine Vorbehandlung der Rohstoffe kann dabei erforderlich sein.

Dieser Artikel ist im Rahmen einer Serie von Gastbeiträgen im CHEManager erschienen. Es handelt sich um „Alternatives Naphtha Teil 2“ – aus CHEManager 10/2024.

Hier finden sie den Artikel auch bei CHEManager.
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Forest-Based Biorefineries: Innovative Bio-Based Products for a clean Transition (PDF)

Markets & Economy, Policy, Technology

8 Pages
368 Downloads

368 Downloads

2024-10

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A new study conducted by the nova-Institute and commissioned by the Confederation of European Paper Industries (Cepi) unveils a significant surge in the European biorefinery sector, with forest-based biorefineries more than doubling their turnover to €6 billion since 2020. This remarkable growth underscores the rising demand for sustainable, bio-based alternatives to fossil-based products.

The research, focused on the pulp and paper industry that produce additional bio-based products which land on the market beyond pulp and paper, identifies a total of 143 biorefineries across Europe, with 126 currently operational and 17 in development. The largest number of biorefineries is in Sweden, Finland, Germany, Portugal and Austria. The study points to a bright future for biorefineries, with projected annual growth rates of up to 5% until 2050.
The products of these biorefineries provide sustainable solutions across various industries, from aviation to fashion, offering alternatives in materials, chemicals, fuels, food, and pharmaceuticals. Importantly, biorefineries contribute to Europe’s climate targets, with bio-based products already substituting over 3.1 megatons of CO₂ emissions that would have been produced by fossil-based industries.

The study emphasises that these advancements are not replacing traditional pulp and paper-making activities but are creating new revenue streams and increasing resource efficiency, providing a pathway to sustainable economic growth.

Source: https://www.cepi.org/report-pulp-and-paper-biorefineries-in-europe-innovative-bio-based-products-for-a-clean-transition

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