This presentation is a supplement to the main publication: “Is there Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050? – A Joint BIC and RCI Scientific Background Report“ and provides deeper insights into the forestry sector.

The TiMBA model evaluates the global forest products market under three scenarios—Business-as-Usual (BAU), Green Low Resource Depletion (LRD), and Green High Tech (HT)—to project wood production, trade, and forest development from 2020 to 2050. Under all scenarios, global forest area increases, especially in Asia, with the LRD and HT scenarios showing stronger forest protection due to deforestation bans and improved forest management. Industrial roundwood production rises by 38% globally by 2050, with Asia leading the growth, and highest demand seen in the LRD scenario, particularly for new applications like dissolving pulp and cellulose derivatives. Despite increased production, forest stocks remain stable or improve slightly due to technological efficiency, increased recycling, and reduced raw material inputs. However, competition for wood residues among biorefineries, pellet production, and sustainable aviation fuels poses challenges to meeting future biomass demand sustainably.