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    joint webinar hosted by bio based industries consortium (bic) and the renewable carbon initiative (rci) (february 2025) (pdf)

    Joint Webinar hosted by Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC) and the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI) (May 2025) (PDF)

    Policy, Sustainability & Health

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    2025-05

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    The webinar was presented by Michael Carus (nova-Institute, RCI), supported by Christopher vom Berg (RCI), Dirk Carrez (BIC), and Marco Rupp (BIC). It was based on a Scientific Background Report “Is there enough biomass to defossilise the chemicals and derived materials sector by 2050?” commissioned by the Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC) and the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI).

    It explored whether agricultural and woody biomass could sustainably meet 20% of the carbon demand for the chemical and derived materials sectors by 2050. Using models like CAPRI (for agriculture) and TiMBA (for forestry), the study examined different scenarios, balancing food, feed, and biofuel priorities. Results showed that with moderate technological advancements, this 20% target is achievable without compromising sustainability or biodiversity. Stronger high-tech scenarios could even provide up to 40%, though existing biofuel policies may limit this. Overall, the study concluded that biomass could play a key role in defossilising the chemical sector, given the right innovations and policy frameworks.

     

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    summary of bic/rci report food and feed supply not at risk – biomass can meet 20 % of carbon demand in the chemicals sector by 2050 without compromising food and feed supply (pdf)

    Summary of BIC/RCI Report – Food and feed supply not at risk (PDF)

    Sustainability & Health

    3 Pages
    318 Downloads

    318 Downloads  

    2025-05

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    Biomass can meet 20 % of carbon demand in the chemicals sector by 2050 without compromising food and feed supply.

    This is a summary of the RCI/BIC study “Is There Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050?” published by the Renewable Carbon Plastics | bioplastics MAGAZINE [02/25] Vol. 20.

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    summary of bic/rci report food and feed supply not at risk – biomass can meet 20 % of carbon demand in the chemicals sector by 2050 without compromising food and feed supply (pdf) (copy)

    Summary of RCI Scientific Background Report “Evaluating LCA Approaches and Methodoloies for Renewable Carbon Sources” (PDF)

    Sustainability & Health

    3 Pages
    451 Downloads

    451 Downloads  

    2025-05

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    How leading LCA standards address renewable carbon: An RCI study

    This is a summary of the RCI Scientific Background Report “Evaluating LCA Approaches and Methodologies for Renewable Carbon Sources” published by the Renewable Carbon Plastics | bioplastics MAGAZINE [02/25] Vol. 20.

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    rci webinar: lca approaches and methodologies for renewable carbon (pdf)

    RCI Webinar: LCA Approaches and Methodologies for Renewable Carbon (PDF)

    Sustainability & Health

    54 Pages
    570 Downloads

    570 Downloads  

    2025-05

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    This webinar presentation is based on the key findings of the RCI Scientific Background Report “Evaluating LCA Approaches and Methodologies for Renewable Carbon Sources” and was held on 7 May 2025 by Ferdinand Kähler (nova-Institute). The session examined how major LCA and carbon footprint standards address renewable carbon sources.

    Topics covered include:

    • Comparison of ISO standards (14040, 14044, 14067), PEF, TfS, Pact Pathfinder, GHG Protocol, and EPDs
    • Areas of consistency, such as biogenic carbon and recycling approaches
    • Key divergences, including allocation methods and co-product substitution credits

    This deck is a useful reference for sustainability teams, LCA practitioners and anyone working with carbon accounting and renewable materials.

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    background document to rci/bic report „is there enough biomass to defossilise the chemicals and derived materials sector by 2050?" (pdf)

    Background Document to RCI/BIC Report „Measuring the Use of Biogenic Feedstocks in the Global and EU Chemical Industry in 2023″ (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy

    16 Pages
    117 Downloads

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    This background document is a supplement to the main publication: “Is there Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050? – A Joint BIC and RCI Scientific Background Report“.

    The report provides a comprehensive assessment of biogenic feedstock usage in the global and EU chemical industries for 2023, detailing sources like starch, sugar, vegetable oils, animal fats and more.

    Globally, the chemical industry used 7.3 million tonnes of starch and 4.0 million tonnes of sugar for bioethanol-derived chemicals, while the EU used 480,000 and 150,000 tonnes respectively. Vegetable oils accounted for the highest single feedstock usage globally at 17.6 million tonnes, and 1.6 million tonnes in the EU. Other significant feedstocks include glycerol (3.4 million tonnes globally, 490,000 tonnes in the EU) and natural rubber (14 million tonnes globally, 1.1 million tonnes in the EU).

    The data aims to establish a baseline for future biomass modeling and highlights discrepancies and assumptions due to data gaps.

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    a deep dive into the agriculture sector – „is there enough biomass to defossilise the chemicals and derived materials sector by 2050?“ (pdf)

    A Deep Dive into the Agriculture sector – „Is There Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050?“ (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    41 Pages
    454 Downloads

    454 Downloads  

    2025-05

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    This presentation is a supplement to the main publication: “Is there Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050? – A Joint BIC and RCI Scientific Background Report“ and provides deeper insights into the agriculture sector.

    The presentation analyses the potential of sustainable agricultural biomass to meet future carbon demand in the global and EU chemical industries by 2050.

    It uses the CAPRI model to simulate various land-use and technological scenarios, finding that only the Green High Tech (HT) scenarios can meet the projected biomass needs while fulfilling food, feed, and fuel demands. Key feedstocks include starch, sugar, and oil crops, with starch having the most significant expansion potential. Residues and biowaste play a limited but important role, especially when supplemented by advanced technologies and logistical improvements. External factors such as reduced meat consumption, Ukraine’s potential EU accession and innovations like agro-photovoltaics and urban farming also influence biomass availability.

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    a deep dive into the forestry sector – „is there enough biomass to defossilise the chemicals and derived materials sector by 2050?" (pdf)

    A Deep Dive into the Forestry sector – „Is There Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050?” (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    46 Pages
    437 Downloads

    437 Downloads  

    2025-05

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    This presentation is a supplement to the main publication: “Is there Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050? – A Joint BIC and RCI Scientific Background Report“ and provides deeper insights into the forestry sector.

    The TiMBA model evaluates the global forest products market under three scenarios—Business-as-Usual (BAU), Green Low Resource Depletion (LRD), and Green High Tech (HT)—to project wood production, trade, and forest development from 2020 to 2050. Under all scenarios, global forest area increases, especially in Asia, with the LRD and HT scenarios showing stronger forest protection due to deforestation bans and improved forest management. Industrial roundwood production rises by 38% globally by 2050, with Asia leading the growth, and highest demand seen in the LRD scenario, particularly for new applications like dissolving pulp and cellulose derivatives. Despite increased production, forest stocks remain stable or improve slightly due to technological efficiency, increased recycling, and reduced raw material inputs. However, competition for wood residues among biorefineries, pellet production, and sustainable aviation fuels poses challenges to meeting future biomass demand sustainably.

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    policy proposals for facilitating the transition to renewable carbon (pdf)

    RCI Policy Proposals for Facilitating the Transition to Renewable Carbon (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health, Technology

    70 Pages
    1163 Downloads

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    2025-04

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    The report outlines a strategic roadmap for transforming Europe’s chemical industry by transitioning from fossil-based to renewable carbon sources. It highlights the industry’s current crisis which is driven by global competition, high energy costs, and regulatory pressure, and stresses the urgency of reducing dependence on fossil feedstocks. The report aruges that the transition to renewable carbon is not just about environmental sustainability; it is about securing Europe’s industrial future and maintaining its global competitiveness in a rapidly changing world. By pioneering renewable carbon technologies, the EU can unlock economic benefits and unleash its innovation potential while advancing climate neutrality ambitions.

    The Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI) proposes ten comprehensive policy measures including mandatory renewable carbon targets, adaptation of emissions trading systems, and financial support mechanisms. These proposals aim to create market demand, drive innovation and build industrial resilience. Key enablers include harmonised standards, robust certification, infrastructure development, and stakeholder engagement.

    DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/DZRU4577

     

     

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    biomassepotenziale rheinisches revier (pdf)

    Biomassepotenziale Rheinisches Revier (PDF)

    Policy, Sustainability & Health

     

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    Das Rheinische Revier soll im Zuge des Kohleausstiegs zu einer „Modellregion Bioökonomie“ entwickelt werden. Der dadurch steigende Biomassebedarf könnte negative Auswertungen haben und muss daher gründlich untersucht werden. Aus diesem Grund hat das LANUV mit Unterstützung des nova-Instituts im Zeitraum vom 01.03.2023 bis 28.02.2025 das Projekt „Biomassepotenziale Rheinisches Revier“ durchgeführt. Ziel des Projekts war es, Grundlagen und Instrumente zu schaffen, um zu einer nachhaltigen Nutzung von Biomasse aus der Land- und Ernährungswirtschaft in der Region beizutragen.

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    bio based building blocks and polymers – global capacities, production and trends 2024–2029 (pdf)

    Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers – Global Capacities, Production and Trends 2024–2029 (PDF)

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    Markets & Economy

    434 Pages

     

    2025-03

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    2024 was a respectable year for bio-based polymers, with an overall expected CAGR of 13 % to 2029. Overall, bio-based biodegradable polymers have large installed capacities with an expected CAGR of 17 % to 2029, but the current average capacity utilisation is moderate at 65 %. In contrast, bio-based non-biodegradable polymers have a much higher utilisation rate of 90 %, but will only grow by 10 % to 2029.

    Epoxy resin and PUR production is growing moderately at 9 and 8 %, respectively, while PP and cyclic APC capacities are increasing by 30 %. Despite a decline in production of biodegradables, especially for PLA in Asia, capacities have increased by 40 %. The same applies to PHA capacities. Commercial newcomers such as casein polymers and PEF recorded a rise in production capacity and are expected to continue to grow significantly until 2029.

    DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/UMTR4695

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    Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers Global Capacities, Production and Trends 2024–2029 – Short Version (PDF)

    Markets & Economy

    28 Pages
    1582 Downloads

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    2025-03

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    2024 was a respectable year for bio-based polymers, with an overall expected CAGR of 13 % to 2029. Overall, bio-based biodegradable polymers have large installed capacities with an expected CAGR of 17 % to 2029, but the current average capacity utilisation is moderate at 65 %. In contrast, bio-based non-biodegradable polymers have a much higher utilisation rate of 90 %, but will only grow by 10 % to 2029.

    Epoxy resin and PUR production is growing moderately at 9 and 8 %, respectively, while PP and cyclic APC capacities are increasing by 30 %. Despite a decline in production of biodegradables, especially for PLA in Asia, capacities have increased by 40 %. The same applies to PHA capacities. Commercial newcomers such as casein polymers and PEF recorded a rise in production capacity and are expected to continue to grow significantly until 2029.

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    evaluating lca approaches and methodologies for renewable carbon sources report 1 of 3 – renewable carbon in lca guidelines (march 2025) (pdf)

    Evaluating LCA Approaches and Methodologies for Renewable Carbon Sources Report 1 of 3 – Renewable Carbon in LCA Guidelines (March 2025) (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    145 Pages
    1089 Downloads

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    Renewable Carbon in LCA Guidelines (146 pages) evaluates methodological choices which impact LCAs for products containing renewable carbon in existing LCA frameworks and guidelines. The study specifically examines the similarities and differences in the methodological choices of guidelines, as well as the implications of these methodological aspects on the resulting LCA outcomes.The frameworks were selected based on their relevance and legitimacy in the industry, academia and policy field, and include: ISO 14040/44, ISO 14067, GHG Protocol Product Standard, PACT’s Pathfinder Framework, the PCF Guideline for the chemical industry by Together for Sustainability (TfS), EPD for the construction industry – ISO 14025 and EN 15804, the Renewable Energy Directive, the Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) and the JRC’s plastics LCA methodology. One field with a particularly large methodological freedom is recycling.

    This report is the first report of a larger RCI project on LCA methodology, which includes two additional publications:

    Report 2 of 3 – Renewable Carbon in Recycling Situations
    Report 3 of 3 – Non-technical Summary

    Please find these additional reports by following the respective links at the bottom of this page.

     

    DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/VCYM7822

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    evaluating lca approaches and methodologies for renewable carbon sources report 2 of 3 – renewable carbon in recycling situations (march 2025) (pdf)

    Evaluating LCA Approaches and Methodologies for Renewable Carbon Sources Report 2 of 3 – Renewable Carbon in Recycling Situations (March 2025) (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    37 Pages
    775 Downloads

    775 Downloads  

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    This report focuses on renewable carbon in recycling scenarios and the key challenges in LCA and carbon footprint assessments. It examines system boundaries, allocation methods, and biogenic carbon accounting approaches, highlighting their influence on sustainability evaluations. The report emphasises the cut-off and avoided-burden approaches for recycling while recommending the -1/+1 method for biogenic carbon transparency. However, it also identifies contradictions between LCA results and broader sustainability goals, such as the EU waste hierarchy, which prioritises recycling. To address these inconsistencies, the report suggests integrating LCA with additional sustainability metrics like land use and recyclability. Ultimately, refining these methodologies will enhance the accuracy and reliability of environmental assessments for bio-based and recycled materials.

    This report is the second report of a larger RCI project on LCA methodology, which includes two additional publications:

    Report 1 of 3 – Renewable Carbon in LCA Guidelines
    Report 3 of 3 – Non-technical Summary

    Please find these additional reports by following the respective links at the bottom of this page.

     

    DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/QTVU8642

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    evaluating lca approaches and methodologies for renewable carbon sources report 3 of 3 – non technical summary (march 2025)

    Evaluating LCA Approaches and Methodologies for Renewable Carbon Sources Report 3 of 3 – Non-technical Summary (March 2025) (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    15 Pages
    969 Downloads

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    This Non-technical Summary (15 pages),highlights main insights into the project results and states key take-aways for policy-makers.

    It compares several frameworks, such as ISO 14040, Product Environmental Footprint (PEF), and GHG Protocol, finding both commonalities and critical differences in areas like biogenic carbon accounting and recycling assessment. The study identifies significant methodological flexibility in existing frameworks, leading to inconsistencies in LCA results and challenges in standardisation. Key issues include differing treatment of carbon capture and utilisation (CCU), direct air capture (DAC), and allocation of environmental burdens in multifunctional processes. Policy recommendations emphasise the need for harmonisation, improved biogenic carbon accounting, and clear guidance on emerging technologies like DAC and mass balance attribution. Overall, the study calls for refining LCA methodologies to ensure fair comparison between renewable and fossil-based carbon solutions.

    This report is the third report of a larger RCI project on LCA methodology, which includes two additional publications:

    Report 1 of 3 – Renewable Carbon in LCA Guidelines
    Report 2 of 3 – Renewable Carbon in Recycling Situations

    Please find these additional reports by following the respective links at the bottom of this page.

    DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/ZEKY1803

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    bio based polymers worldwide (pdf)

    Bio-based Polymers Worldwide (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    5 Pages
    861 Downloads

    861 Downloads  

    2025-02

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    Expert insight into capacity developments, investments and new policy frameworks:
    • Firstly, global capacity for bio-based polymers will grow strongly over the next five years, much faster than for fossil-based polymers
    • Secondly, investments in new capacity will take place in China, Europe, the Middle East, and the US
    • Thirdly, investment in bio-based polymer capacities is mainly driven by policy frameworks that create demand.
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    sustainable textiles the way forward (pdf)

    Sustainable textiles – the way forward (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Sustainability & Health

    6 Pages
    593 Downloads

    593 Downloads  

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    High reliance on fossil carbon, associated high carbon footprint, low recycling rates and microplastics:
    Several solutions are emerging. The article analyses the evolution of the textile industry from 1960 to today, fossil and bio-based as well as recycling.
    The future of sustainable textiles
    The sustainable textile industry of the future will be built on a foundation of cotton fibres and fast-growing cellulose fibres, later strongly supported by bio- and CO2-based synthetic fibres (“biosynthetics”) and high recycling rates for all types of fibres. This combination can eventually replace most fossil-based synthetic fibres by 2050.
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    evaluation of recent reports on the future of a net zero chemical industry in 2050 (pdf) (copy)

    Is there Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050? – A Joint BIC and RCI Scientific Background Report (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    41 Pages
    1925 Downloads

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    This reports presents the findings of a joint project of the Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC) and the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI), which focuses on whether agricultural and woody biomass combined sustainably provide enough biomass to meet 20% of the future carbon demand of the chemical and derived materials industries in 2050 (up from 5.5% (EU27) and 10% (global) in 2023).

    This leading question was investigated with professional experts to model a business-as-usual, a low resource depletion, and a high-tech scenario to better analyse the possible ranges of biomass availability under different developments.

    Agriculture: By 2050, under the BAU scenario, production is projected to increase by 31% to 5.07 billion tonnes. Cereals increase by 32% to 3.1 billion tonnes, sugar by 40% to 340 million tonnes and vegetable oils by 45% to 317 million tonnes. In the Green LRD scenarios, production is projected to increase by 24–26%, and in the Green HT scenarios by 38–53% – compared to 31% in the BAU scenario.

    Forestry: Global supply and demand of industrial roundwood (coniferous and non-coniferous) will increase by an estimated 38% between 2020 and 2050, from 0.9 to 1.3 billion tdm. The largest increase in supply is expected in Asia (69%), including China and Russia, but a significant increase of 32% is also seen for Europe.

    The report concludes that sustainably meeting 20% of total carbon demand of the chemicals and derived materials sector in 2050 via biomass seems a realistic and achievable estimate.

    DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/PIRL6916

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    eu and global: biomass demand for transport fuels, aviation and shipping up to 2050 and implications for biomass supply to the chemical sector (pdf)

    EU and Global: Biomass Demand for Transport Fuels, Aviation and Shipping up to 2050 and Implications for Biomass Supply to the Chemical Sector (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    44 Pages
    1295 Downloads

    1295 Downloads  

    2025-01

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    The Renewable Carbon Initiative’s Scientific Background Report explores three potential future scenarios for carbon-based fuel demand up to 2050 under current policy frameworks. It predicts a sharp rise in the demand for second-generation biomass biofuels, driven primarily by increasing quotas for aviation and shipping fuels. This growth raises concerns about ecological and resource sustainability and creates challenges for sectors like chemicals and materials, which rely on renewable carbon to reduce fossil dependency. Without similar regulatory incentives, these sectors may face limited access to critical feedstocks like biomass and captured carbon.

    The report highlights that while bio-based and synthetic fuel production could indirectly benefit the chemical industry through by-products, competition with the fuel sector poses significant obstacles.The report includes 11 tables, 9 graphics, and a detailed overview of EU fuel regulations. Though focused on Europe, it also provides global insights, making it a valuable resource for stakeholders in biomass and CO2 utilisation sectors.

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.52548/GXVG4189

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    rci position paper on chemical and physical recycling (pdf) (copy)

    Evaluation of Recent Reports on the Future of a Net-Zero Chemical Industry in 2050 (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Policy, Sustainability & Health

    20 Pages
    1863 Downloads

    1863 Downloads  

    2024-11

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    The Renewable Carbon Initiative’s Scientific Background Report assesses 24 scenarios from 15 studies to envision a net-zero chemical industry by 2050. The analysis anticipates continued growth in chemical production, projecting a 2.4-fold increase in global feedstock demand by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with most expansion expected outside Europe while European feedstock volumes remain stable. To achieve net-zero emissions, the industry is projected to undergo a significant shift in feedstocks, with key renewable carbon sources identified as biomass (22%), carbon capture and utilisation (33%), and recycling (20%), while the remaining 24% comes from fossil sources with carbon capture and storage. For plastics specifically, recycling is expected to play an even larger role, accounting for 42% of feedstocks on average. This transition will require continued innovation and investment in renewable carbon technologies to meet ambitious defossilisation goals.

    The report provides invaluable insights for industry leaders, policymakers, and researchers, highlighting the urgent need for action to achieve a net-zero future in the chemical sector by 2050.

    DOI No.: https://doi.org/10.52548/SXWV6083

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    alternatives naphtha – den kreislauf für kunststoffe und reifen schließen: pyrolyseöl als chemischer rohstoff (gastbeitrag teil 3) (pdf)

    Alternatives Naphtha – Den Kreislauf für Kunststoffe und Reifen schließen: Pyrolyseöl als chemischer Rohstoff (Gastbeitrag Teil 3) (PDF)

    Markets & Economy, Technology

    1 Page
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    2024-11

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    In den beiden vorangegangenen Artikeln dieser Serie wurde das Konzept des alternativen Naphthas als Ersatz für fossile Rohstoffe in Raffinerien und Steamcrackern vorgestellt. In diesem dritten Artikel konzentriert sich die Diskussion auf Pyrolyseöl, das durch chemisches Recycling von Kunststoffabfällen und Reifen gewonnen wird, und warum dies ein wichtiges „alternatives Naphtha“ für Raffinerien und Steamcracker ist.

    Relevante Anteile erneuerbarer Chemikalien und Polymere sind ohne „alternatives Naphtha“ nicht möglich. Ohne eine Abkehr von fossilem Naphtha wird es keine signifikante Defossilisierung des Chemiesektors geben.

    Dieser Artikel ist im Rahmen einer Serie von Gastbeiträgen im CHEManager erschienen. Es handelt sich um „Alternatives Naphtha Teil 3“ – aus CHEManager 11/2024.

    Hier finden sie den Artikel auch bei CHEManager.

     

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