Is there Enough Biomass to Defossilise the Chemicals and Derived Materials Sector by 2050? – A Joint BIC and RCI Scientific Background Report (PDF)
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This reports presents the findings of a joint project of the Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC) and the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI), which focuses on whether agricultural and woody biomass combined sustainably provide enough biomass to meet 20% of the future carbon demand of the chemical and derived materials industries in 2050 (up from 5.5% (EU27) and 10% (global) in 2023).
This leading question was investigated with professional experts to model a business-as-usual, a low resource depletion, and a high-tech scenario to better analyse the possible ranges of biomass availability under different developments.
Agriculture: By 2050, under the BAU scenario, production is projected to increase by 31% to 5.07 billion tonnes. Cereals increase by 32% to 3.1 billion tonnes, sugar by 40% to 340 million tonnes and vegetable oils by 45% to 317 million tonnes. In the Green LRD scenarios, production is projected to increase by 24–26%, and in the Green HT scenarios by 38–53% – compared to 31% in the BAU scenario.
Forestry: Global supply and demand of industrial roundwood (coniferous and non-coniferous) will increase by an estimated 38% between 2020 and 2050, from 0.9 to 1.3 billion tdm. The largest increase in supply is expected in Asia (69%), including China and Russia, but a significant increase of 32% is also seen for Europe.
The report concludes that sustainably meeting 20% of total carbon demand of the chemicals and derived materials sector in 2050 via biomass seems a realistic and achievable estimate.
