The Renewable Carbon Initiative’s Scientific Background Report explores three potential future scenarios for carbon-based fuel demand up to 2050 under current policy frameworks. It predicts a sharp rise in the demand for second-generation biomass biofuels, driven primarily by increasing quotas for aviation and shipping fuels. This growth raises concerns about ecological and resource sustainability and creates challenges for sectors like chemicals and materials, which rely on renewable carbon to reduce fossil dependency. Without similar regulatory incentives, these sectors may face limited access to critical feedstocks like biomass and captured carbon.

The report highlights that while bio-based and synthetic fuel production could indirectly benefit the chemical industry through by-products, competition with the fuel sector poses significant obstacles.The report includes 11 tables, 9 graphics, and a detailed overview of EU fuel regulations. Though focused on Europe, it also provides global insights, making it a valuable resource for stakeholders in biomass and CO₂ utilisation sectors.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52548/GXVG4189

The graph shows the distribution of feedstock sources for the net-zero chemical industry by 2050, based on 16 scenarios from 9 reports, with CCU having the highest mean share at 33%, followed by biomass (22%), recycling (20%, split between mechanical and chemical), and fossil with CCS (24%). The data reveals significant variability across scenarios, particularly for CCU which ranges from near 0% to 90%, while both biomass and recycling show more moderate ranges, indicating a general consensus on their roles in the future chemical industry.

The graph presents the mean feedstock shares for the 2050 net-zero plastics sector, derived from 10 scenarios across 7 reports. In this projection, recycling dominates with a 42% share, followed by biomass (21%), fossil & CCS (19%), and CCU (17%), highlighting the increased potential for circularity in the plastics industry compared to the broader chemical sector.