Carbon Flows Update 2026 – Compilation of Supply and Demand of Fossil and Renewable Carbon for Chemicals and Derived Materials on a Global and European Level
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Three years after the first Carbon Flow Report in 2023, the update incorporates new data and a significantly improved methodology. Scientists at nova-Institute have developed a new system approach to trace carbon flows from feedstocks to products along the chemical value chain. Covering more than 40 chemical value chains, this approach provides a reliable dataset on embedded carbon flows while systematically excluding double counting.
In 2023, global demand for carbon feedstock in chemicals and derived materials amounted to 660 million tonnes of carbon per year, with 86% originating from fossil resources, 10% from biomass and 4% from recycling. Including all carbon based materials, total demand reached 1,400 million tonnes of carbon per year, with biomass and recycled biomass contributing 46%. In the EU, carbon feedstock demand amounted to 85 million tonnes of carbon per year, representing 13% of global demand. The European feedstock mix differs from the global average, with a biomass share of approximately 8% and a higher recycling share of 9%. The updated figures reflect methodological improvements and developments in the European chemical and recycling sectors. The report also presents an updated exploratory scenario for a global chemical industry with net zero emissions by 2050. It assumes an annual growth rate of 2%, a recycling share of 50% and a biomass contribution of 20 to 30%. The scenario is not a prediction, as its realisation depends on political framework conditions and investments.
Based on scientific literature, statistical databases, industry data and expert consultation, the report contains more than 30 graphics and tables with descriptions of methodology, sources and data. It is designed as a living document that will be updated regularly.
Feedback, additional input and new data are welcome. Please contact Christopher vom Berg, Head of the Renewable Feedstock Department at nova-Institut, at christopher.vomberg@nova-institut.de.
DOI: 10.5258/BCXC5064
