IPCC: last plenary session fails to set timeline for next climate assessment reports

The IPCC, the United Nations body responsible for scientific assessments on climate change, is currently in its Seventh Assessment Cycle, initiated in July 2023.

At the 61st plenary session held in Sofia, Bulgaria, from 27 July to 2 August, a decision should have been made on the timelines of the three reports that comprise the Seventh Assessment Report, a comprehensive scientific evaluation of climate change, its causes and impacts.

These assessments guide policy-making worldwide, namely the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

“We encourage you to successfully conclude the strategic planning of the seventh assessment cycle here in Sofia, because the world needs to ramp up action, and the information you provide will add serious value when decisions are made,” said United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Director Youssef Nassef, addressing the IPCC’s 61st session.

Nassef added that “We rely on your frequent updates as we steer negotiations impartially among the parties.”

The 114 plus governments attending, however, failed to agree on a schedule for the assessment, but approved the scope of a special report on climate change and the cities, and a methodology report on short-lived climate forcers.

The decision on the schedule was postponed to the next IPCC session, February 2025. But scoping meetings between experts will take place ahead of that plenary, in December 2024.

IPCC Chair Jim Skea announced at the opening of the session, that the planning schedule, “has far-reaching implications in terms of the timeliness of our products.”

The lack of a decision to agree on dates may indicate differences between governments.

According to Climate Home News the failure to reach a decision was due to a dozen developing countries, including India, Saudi Arabia and China, wanting greater inclusivity of experts from the Global South. Due to this issue they opposed the proposed speeding up of the reporting process.

The EU was also participating as represented by the European Commission.

A Commission official told Euractiv that, “this outcome is the result of differing views, and of the difficulty to reach consensus at this 61st Session, where discussions on other agenda items occupied the limited time in plenary sessions.”

For the Commission, the scoping meetings ahead of the plenary can, “allow for smoother and more convergent discussions in reaching a consensus where the schedule is regarded as policy-relevant, inclusive, and respectful of the scientific processes.”

When asked by Euractiv about the discussions, the IPCC chose not to comment, stating that these are closed working meetings.

Meeting the Paris Targets

In the previous cycle, the Sixth Assessment Report was completed in March 2023, ahead of the first global stocktake which took place at COP28 in Dubai, in December 2023.

IPCC’s reports provide direct scientific input to inform the global stocktake, an assessment of the global progress in achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement.

This process enables countries to see whether their efforts are effective, and where they can improve.

For the Commission, it is a priority that the assessment reports are published ahead of the second global stocktake under the Paris Agreement

“This was defended by EU member states and other European and non-European countries, and by the EU delegation itself.

The EU delegation stressed the significance of such a timeline for the IPCC mandate, which is to be policy relevant,” a Commission official told Euractiv.

“The EU also recalled that policy leaders are bound to implement the Paris Agreement and that their demands for science-based policy input is increasing, as the acceleration of the policy response is necessary to meet our climate targets,” the same official added.

According to the IPCC Co-Chairs’ proposal presented at the 61st session, these assessment reports should be delivered between May and August 2028.

These dates, which for now are only indicative, would be aligned with the next global stocktake process, which concludes at the end of 2028.

Source

Euractiv, 2024-08-07.

Supplier

European Commission
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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