A 100% renewable energy scenario developed by Finland\u2019s LUT University predicts that electricity could make up 85% of the EU\u2019s energy mix by 2050, more than 60% of which would be generated by solar panels.<\/p>\n
A fully renewable energy system could be reached by 2050 under a \u201cmoderate scenario\u201d and even by 2040 in a \u201cleadership scenario,\u201d according to the study, published on Wednesday (15 April).<\/p>\n
\u201cA 100% renewable energy system in Europe is absolutely possible from a technical perspective,\u201d said Dr Christian Breyer, professor of solar economy at LUT University.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is also the most affordable and safest option to achieving climate neutrality in Europe by 2050,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
The study \u201creally shows the amazing potential that the European Union has when it comes to renewable electricity,\u201d said Aur\u00e9lie Beauvais, policy director at trade association SolarPower Europe, which commissioned the study.<\/p>\n
According to researchers at LUT University, solar and wind power will be the \u201ctwo main pillars of the European energy transition,\u201d with an installed capacity of at least 7.7 and 1.7 TW respectively by 2050.<\/p>\n
\u201cDue to its higher capacity factors wind provides the highest shares of electricity generation up to 2030,\u201d the study found.<\/p>\n
But solar\u2019s versatility and cost-competitiveness \u201cwill make it the main source of electricity generation from 2030 onward,\u201d it adds, referring to the spectacular fall in costs of PV modules.<\/p>\n
However, to achieve such growth rates, solar must be coupled with a high rate of electrification and be more closely integrated with energy using sectors such as transport and industry.<\/p>\n
Electrolysers that produce hydrogen from renewable electricity are seen as \u201ca crucial technology\u201d to reach 100% renewables and decarbonise the heat and transport sectors, the report said.<\/p>\n
100% scenario<\/p>\n
The study \u201creally comes at the right time,\u201d said Paula Abreu Marques, a senior official at the European Commission\u2019s energy directorate who spoke at a webinar organised by SolarPower Europe on Wednesday (15 April).<\/p>\n
\u201cI am sure it will give them food for thought,\u201d she added, referring to energy scenarios that Commission modellers are currently preparing in view of an \u201cimpact assessment\u201d study due in September that will examine the costs and benefits of raising the EU\u2019s climate targets for 2030.<\/p>\n
Last month, a group of six EU countries asked the Commission to include a 100% renewable energy scenario in its long-term climate projections.<\/p>\n
But the Commission has remained vague as to whether such a scenario would be included in its September impact assessment study.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Commission is assessing the impact of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50\/55% by 2030 \u2013 and the contribution that all sectors can make,\u201d a Commission spokesperson told EURACTIV in emailed comments.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe choice of the scenarios will be based on present realities of member states\u2019 energy mix,\u201d the spokesperson added.<\/p>\n
During the webinar, Marques gave more insights into the Commission\u2019s thinking. \u201cWe see that some member states are willing to get to 100% renewables, while others are not considering this. And for this reason, none of the scenarios that we have exploits a single decarbonisation option to the maximum technical potential,\u201d she explained.<\/p>\n
Taking an example, she said some countries intend to keep nuclear energy in their energy mix by 2050. \u201cSo this has to be factored in,\u201d Marques said, explaining that the 100% renewables scenario would also have to account for decommissioning costs of nuclear facilities as well as waste disposal.<\/p>\n
Challenges<\/p>\n
Even clean energy advocates admit that a 100% renewable scenario is likely to generate anxiety in some member states.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe big elephant in the room is always to convince people that the lights won\u2019t go out at some point,\u201d said Michael Schmela, head of market intelligence at SolarPower Europe.<\/p>\n
But he says available technologies can manage the variability of renewable power sources and avoid blackouts, especially at night when the sun doesn\u2019t shine.<\/p>\n
\u201cBatteries, electrolysers and energy export provide the system flexibility that\u2019s needed,\u201d for day-to-day variations, Schmela argued. According to the report, batteries will represent \u201cup to 70% of electricity storage\u201d.<\/p>\n
However, the study says growth in battery capacity can be limited thanks to \u201ca highly integrated approach with full sector coupling and high electrification rates\u201d.<\/p>\n
And while renewable energy sceptics usually accept that batteries can store sufficient power to go through the night, a greater challenge is to \u201cexplain how an energy system running on solar and wind can survive throughout the winter,\u201d the report admits.<\/p>\n
According to SolarPower Europe, \u201cheat storage plays a vital role\u201d in winter while wind and hydropower could become the dominant producers of electricity during cold spells.<\/p>\n
Solar power on a Terawatt-scale also raises questions about the raw materials used in the production of panels, some of which have been listed as \u201ccritical\u201d by the European Commission.<\/p>\n
Most components of solar panels are produced in china, which stopped its factories during the COVID-19 crisis, highlighting weaknesses in the solar supply chain.<\/p>\n
How to get there<\/p>\n
Even so, the role that solar power can play in the European Commission\u2019s \u201csmart sector integration\u201d strategy, seems widely acknowledged by policymakers.<\/p>\n
\u201cEnergy efficiency always has to come first,\u201d Marques said during the webinar. \u201cBut it is not only energy efficiency first at the end-use, it\u2019s across the system, the whole chain,\u201d she said, explaining why she sees smart sector integration as a crucial component of the Green Deal and the EU\u2019s post-pandemic recovery plan.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is also a system that has to rely on electricity. And that electricity has to come, for the biggest part, from renewables,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A 100% renewable energy scenario developed by Finland\u2019s LUT University predicts that electricity could make up 85% of the EU\u2019s energy mix by 2050, more than 60% of which would be generated by solar panels. A fully renewable energy system could be reached by 2050 under a \u201cmoderate scenario\u201d and even by 2040 in a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","nova_meta_subtitle":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5572],"tags":[5838,5627],"supplier":[10901],"class_list":["post-74037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bio-based","tag-bioeconomy","tag-energy","supplier-lappeenranta-university-of-technology-lut"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74037\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74037"},{"taxonomy":"supplier","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/supplier?post=74037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}