They are battling imported and sometimes fake used cooking oil, not-yet-viable advanced fuels, palm oil diesel, imports from countries which didn\u2019t even sign the Paris Agreement and good old fossil oil relabeled as \u201cdouble counted renewable\u201d.\u00a0 Europe\u2019s new RED II legislation is a smorgasbord of climate-harming substitutes for domestically sourced conventional ethanol.<\/p>\n
But do the numbers and two things jump out:\u00a0 domestically sourced conventional ethanol is safe and effective, and we are going to need it for at least another thirty years.\u00a0 Electric vehicles won\u2019t reach parity with combustion engines until sometime around 2050 and by that time the total fleet will have doubled in size.\u00a0\u00a0 Conventional climate friendly ethanol allows the combustion fleet reduce its carbon footprint during those transition decades.<\/p>\n
It is true that electric vehicle sales are growing at a rapid pace, with the world EV fleet doubling in the past year alone.\u00a0 The total fleet of road vehicles, conventional and electric, is also set to double, reaching two billion in thirty years from now.\u00a0 Put together, the small electric fleet growing quickly and the large conventional fleet growing slowly will result in a roughly fifty-fifty split between conventional and electric engines on the road in 2050.\u00a0 This is good news for electromobility but it does mean the world will still be burning as much liquid fuel on the road in 2050 as it is today.
\nPeak Oil on the Road<\/p>\n
Peak oil in road transport will be reached ahead of 2050, or sometime around 2035 when the electric fleet starts to make its presence felt on a large scale.\u00a0 Fossil carbon transport emissions will be up 25% in the period.\u00a0\u00a0 Globally, transport activity doubled between 1970 and 2010[1] and is set to double again by 2050[2], with an average annual growth rate of 1.5%.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 And by the way this is a conservative estimate.\u00a0\u00a0 It could actually be twice that as growth in world GDP in the same period is predicted to be 3%[3].\u00a0 If it is twice that then oil use on the road could potentially grow as much as 80% above today\u2019s level with peak oil in transport occuring as late as 2045.<\/p>\n
Peak Oil on the Road:\u00a0 Projection based on 20% average annual growth in electric vehicle sales to 2050 and 6% scrappage rate.<\/p>\n
Global sales of oil burning cars and light vehicles exceeded 90 million units in 2017[4].\u00a0\u00a0 This compares to around a million[5] for the electric sector, a relatively modest number though very large in comparison to the global stock of electric vehicles, which reached two million a year ago.\u00a0\u00a0 What this means in terms of trends in greenhouse gas emissions is that for every new electric vehicle joining the world\u2019s car fleet today there are still nearly a hundred new fossil burners taking to the roads.\u00a0 Sixty of the new ones are replacing end-of-life vehicles, which have a lifespan of 15-20 years, but thirty of them are actually adding to the fleet size.\u00a0 The conventional fleet is still growing way faster than the electric sector can catch up, and will continue to do so until peak oil on the road is reached.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not unlike the trend in dietary habits across the globe, with the growing number of climate aware people cutting their meat intake still vastly outnumbered by those taking to red meat for the first time.\u00a0 Peak red meat is still some time away.
\nIllusory Truth<\/p>\n
An illustry truth is something people believe to be true as a result of repeated exposure even though it is not true.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The super rapid uptake of electric vehicles is an example of an illusory truth.\u00a0 Many citizens and governments believe that the world fleet of vehicles will be well on the way to renewable electrification in under a decade, rendering unnecessary any further support for biofuels.\u00a0 They ignore the many factors that make the \u201ctruth\u201d illusory:\u00a0 Sales of combustion engines vehicles in absolute numbers are still growing\u00a0 way faster than sales of EVs;\u00a0 The vehicle fleet replacement rate is about 5% per year, meaning it takes 20 years for a new sales trends to become fleet-wide trends;\u00a0\u00a0 Electricity producers are struggling to convert current supply to renewable supply, never mind servicing additional renewable demand;\u00a0 Consumers are not ready to take a cut on their range of model and make options and makers will require decades to develop new ranges;\u00a0 Vehicle financing institutions, makers and owners have vast amounts of capital tied up in the residual value of their conventional vehicles and will be reluctant to embrace change which might threaten that capital;\u00a0 Many consumers and governments do not see climate change as their problem and are years away from making changes.\u00a0 Many don\u2019t believe climate change is happening.\u00a0 The list goes on.<\/p>\n
Even Volkswagen\u2019s terrific announcement this month, to have 25% of it\u2019s output electric by 2025, does not make the EV feeling less illusory.\u00a0 Let\u2019s hope Volkswagen reach 50% electric sales by 2030.\u00a0 In the absence of governments forcing early scrappage \u2013 which is not out of the question \u2013 it\u2019ll still take until 2050 for the total fleet to become 50% electric.
\nWhat to do<\/p>\n
All this points to two imperatives for climate change legislators.\u00a0 Firstly, efforts to accelerate electric vehicle take-up should be intensified greatly.\u00a0 There is no such thing as too much support for electro-mobility.\u00a0\u00a0 Secondly, the right policy frameworks should be put in place to assure safe effective solutions like conventional ethanol are available for reducing the carbon footprint of traditional liquid fueled engines in the lengthy interim.
\nWorks in Today\u2019s Cars Today<\/p>\n
Ethanol can be blended at up to 100% of the fuel going into the gas tanks of conventional cars, depending on engine type and fuel standards.\u00a0 Virtually all petrol engine vehicles made in the world today can run on a 25% ethanol blend, either as they are or with minor changes.\u00a0 For each percentage point of ethanol used in petrol the carbon savings are between a half and one percent with the precise figure determined by the way the ethanol was produced and by the methodology used to calculate the savings.\u00a0 To take a practical example, if ethanol were to be blended at 20% in the fuel of Europe\u2019s entire fleet of 100 million petrol vehicles the effect in terms of greenhouse gases would be the equivalent of taking 15 million of those vehicles off the road.\u00a0 That is a huge contribution.\u00a0 Europe has made a start, putting about 5% ethanol in its petrol on average to date.\u00a0 The USA is at 10% and Brazil at nearly 30%.\u00a0 China aims to reach 10% by 2020.<\/p>\n
The consensus among transport energy analysts at the IPCC[6] is that low carbon biofuels can and must be deployed in the existing fleet for reducing the carbon intensity of internal combustion engines.<\/p>\n
Right now conventional bioethanol is the world\u2019s most cost effective, climate friendly and readily available form of fossil fuel substitute there is.\u00a0 It is helping make the transition to electro-mobility that bit more manageable.<\/p>\n
Europe\u2019s ethanol CEOs have a great product.\u00a0 It\u2019s worth a crazy fight to maintain a role for this product at the heart of European transport climate action.<\/p>\n
Author: James Cogan is an industrial engineer and policy analyst.\u00a0 He currently advises Pannonia Ethanol in Hungary.<\/p>\n
[1] Figure 8.1 of IPCC Report \u201dClimate Change 2014:\u00a0 Mitigation of Climate Change\u201d<\/p>\n
[2] Figure 8.10 of IPCC Report \u201dClimate Change 2014:\u00a0 Mitigation of Climate Change\u201d<\/p>\n
[3] https:\/\/www.pwc.com\/gx\/en\/issues\/the-economy\/assets\/world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf<\/p>\n
[4] http:\/\/news.ihsmarkit.com\/press-release\/global-auto-sales-set-reach-935-million-2017-risk-greater-ever-ihs-markit-says<\/p>\n
[5] http:\/\/electriccarsreport.com\/2017\/02\/global-plug-vehicle-sales-2016\/<\/p>\n
[6] http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/pdf\/assessment-report\/ar5\/wg3\/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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