![\"Ege](\"https:\/\/www.biobasedpress.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Ege-University-Solar-Energy-Institute-Photo-SolarisRheya-Wikimedia-Commons.jpg\")
Sustainability will be cheap<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nThe article Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition<\/a> was written by Rupert Way and colleagues of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. They estimated future energy costs for three very different scenarios. Their main conclusion is that a \u2018rapid green energy transition will likely result in trillions of net savings\u2019. This is a fundamentally new conclusion, as green energy transition scenarios so far tended to overestimate<\/em> renewable energy costs<\/a>. Yes, authors were well aware that renewable energy costs came down very quickly in the past. But they always found some reason to argue that this trend would come to a halt very soon. Except, it never did.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe authors\u2019 conclusion is of great importance because, as they write, \u2018decisions about how and when to decarbonize the global energy system are highly influenced by estimates of the likely cost.\u2019 Therefore \u2018concerns about costs have been a barrier to implementation.\u2019 And yet, articles on the non-validity of green energy transition forecasts never succeeded in breaking this barrier. The present authors choose a new forecasting method, statistically validated by backtesting on more than 50 technologies. This results in \u2018probabilistic cost forecasts for solar energy, wind energy, batteries, and electrolyzers, conditional on deployment.\u2019 Of course we know that the past doesn\u2019t determine future developments. Still, the authors claim that \u2018a rapid green energy transition will likely result in overall net savings of many trillions of dollars \u2013 even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Wind](\"https:\/\/renewable-carbon.eu\/news\/media\/2022\/10\/Wind-turbines-in-Germany-Photo-Tony-Webster-Wikimedia-Commons.jpg\")
Wind turbines in Germany. Photo: Tony Webster, Wikimedia Commons<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nNo obstacles to a fast transition<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nAt present, the energy landscape is very crowded. Many technologies cost about the same, $ 100\/MWh. But long-term trends show that the cost of fossil fuels doesn\u2019t change very much, whereas renewable energy costs come down very quickly \u2013 about 10% yearly. For instance, solar power now costs about one thousandth of the level at which it was introduced in 1958. And not just solar power became much cheaper \u2013 so did wind energy, batteries and electrolysers \u2013 key technologies for a renewable energy system. For predictions about the future, the authors use Wright\u2019s law: costs drop as a function of cumulative production. This means that cost reduction is dependent on deployment and R&D. In other words, costs don\u2019t come down automatically; this effect is dependent on our effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most optimistic scenario, Fast Transition, is in line with past trends. \u2018There appear to be no major obstacles to bringing the necessary technologies to scale in terms of land use, sea, climate, raw materials, manufacturing capacity, energy return on energy invested, or system integration.\u2019 But such a scenario will require enhancing policies: demand stimulation, enforcement of portfolio standards. The advantages of such policies will be \u2018enormous\u2019. Although we will need \u2018strong international policies for building infrastructure, skills training, and making the investments required to realize future gains.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The green energy transition<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The authors\u2019 conclusion is of great importance because, as they write, \u2018decisions about how and when to decarbonize the global energy system are highly influenced by estimates of the likely cost.\u2019 Therefore \u2018concerns about costs have been a barrier to implementation.\u2019 And yet, articles on the non-validity of green energy transition forecasts never succeeded in breaking this barrier. The present authors choose a new forecasting method, statistically validated by backtesting on more than 50 technologies. This results in \u2018probabilistic cost forecasts for solar energy, wind energy, batteries, and electrolyzers, conditional on deployment.\u2019 Of course we know that the past doesn\u2019t determine future developments. Still, the authors claim that \u2018a rapid green energy transition will likely result in overall net savings of many trillions of dollars \u2013 even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n At present, the energy landscape is very crowded. Many technologies cost about the same, $ 100\/MWh. But long-term trends show that the cost of fossil fuels doesn\u2019t change very much, whereas renewable energy costs come down very quickly \u2013 about 10% yearly. For instance, solar power now costs about one thousandth of the level at which it was introduced in 1958. And not just solar power became much cheaper \u2013 so did wind energy, batteries and electrolysers \u2013 key technologies for a renewable energy system. For predictions about the future, the authors use Wright\u2019s law: costs drop as a function of cumulative production. This means that cost reduction is dependent on deployment and R&D. In other words, costs don\u2019t come down automatically; this effect is dependent on our effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The most optimistic scenario, Fast Transition, is in line with past trends. \u2018There appear to be no major obstacles to bringing the necessary technologies to scale in terms of land use, sea, climate, raw materials, manufacturing capacity, energy return on energy invested, or system integration.\u2019 But such a scenario will require enhancing policies: demand stimulation, enforcement of portfolio standards. The advantages of such policies will be \u2018enormous\u2019. Although we will need \u2018strong international policies for building infrastructure, skills training, and making the investments required to realize future gains.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\nNo obstacles to a fast transition<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The green energy transition<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n